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Forfatter Melding
InnleggSkrevet: 12 Des 2017, 23:16 
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Det begynner å bli allment akseptert at vi over tid må fase ut den fossile energien og erstatte den med fornybar. Dette må vi gjøre både av hensyn til klima og miljø, men også fordi den rett og slett ikke er fornybar og altså noe som etter hvert vil bli en knapphetsressurs. Men hvordan ligger vi an? Her er en kort artikkel, basert på en grundigere studie, om hvordan ståa er:
Sitat:
The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late
....
So, how are we doing with the energy transition? Can we eliminate fossil fuels from the world’s energy system? Can we do it before it is too late to avoid the disasters that climate change and resource depletion will bring to us if we continue with business as usual?
...
In our paper, we started from the Jacobson/Clack controversy and we tried to use physical considerations (not subjected to the vagaries of markets) to examine how fast we can grow renewable energy. That’s constrained by several factors but, as a first consideration by the fact that we need to invest energy now in order to get energy in the future.
...
In short, a transition that could maintain the “BAU” (business as usual) is technically feasible and physically possible if we were willing to increase of a factor of 5 (at the very least) our investments in it. Unfortunately, the trend is going in the opposite direction. The global investments in renewable energy seem to have levelled off and In 2016 were approximately at the same level as they were in 2010. Too little, too late.

Can we hope for some miracle that would increase the efficiency of clean energy technologies by a factor of 5 in a short time? Unlikely, to say the least. That’s true also for the often idolized nuclear energy which is not more efficient than renewables in terms of EPBT and even more unlikely to go through rapid and revolutionary technological improvements.

So, basically, we are not making it. We are consciously choosing to go down the Seneca Cliff, even though we wouldn’t need to. It is maddening to think that we are failing at the challenge not because the transition is technologically unfeasible or unaffordable, but because the transition is politically inconceivable. Increasing investments in renewable energy requires sacrifices and this is a no-no in our world.

So, what’s going to happen? The fact that we won’t attain the transition doesn’t mean returning to Middle Ages or even to Olduvai, but that in the future not everyone, and not even a majority of people, will have as much energy as we are used to having today. The sacrifices we refuse to make now will have to be made, and much larger, in the future.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017- ... ttle-late/


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